Italy’s electric future: where will charging be needed next?

Italy’s transition to electric cars creates an opportunity for charging operators—and a coordination challenge for government. As affordability improves and registrations grow, investment needs to anticipate where the next wave of drivers will need dependable charging.

Our comparison of European regions shows why population density alone provides an incomplete guide. Lombardy and Campania have similar numbers of residents per square kilometre, but markedly different recorded charging footprints. Connecting that spatial evidence with vehicle market forecasts gives operators and policymakers a stronger starting point for deciding where to investigate demand and coverage.

Similar populations, different charging footprints

Across the Spanish regions we examined, more densely populated areas generally had more recorded charging locations per square kilometre. In Italy, that relationship was much weaker.

Lombardy and Campania illustrate the difference. Both have roughly 400 residents per square kilometre, yet Lombardy has around 17 recorded charging locations per 100,000 people, compared with around three in Campania.

Both regions have roughly 30 recorded filling stations per 100,000 residents. The contrast in charging therefore remains visible when viewed alongside established refuelling infrastructure.

These are mapped locations, rather than individual connectors or measures of charging power, reliability or availability. OpenStreetMap coverage can vary between regions. The comparison identifies a difference worth investigating; it does not establish the size of an operational charging shortfall.

Regional prosperity also differs. Lombardy’s GDP per person is approximately double Campania’s, according to Eurostat’s regional GDP data. GDP per person measures economic output, rather than household purchasing power. The contrast points to prosperity as another factor to investigate alongside vehicle affordability, policy and infrastructure investment.

Affordability can change the adoption map

Italy’s electric-car purchase scheme demonstrated how support can change the economics of ownership. Qualifying households could receive up to €11,000 towards a new battery-electric car. Eligibility depended on the household’s ISEE means indicator, residence in designated urban areas, scrappage and other conditions. It was targeted support, rather than a discount available to every buyer. Italian government programme summary.

Combined with manufacturer discounts, that support made smaller EVs substantially more affordable. A historical Stellantis &You promotion advertised the Leapmotor T03 at €4,900 for qualifying buyers meeting its conditions. That illustrates the scale of the affordability shift; it is not a current price offer. Stellantis &You promotion.

Registrations during the incentive period were striking. UNRAE recorded 5,022 T03 registrations in March 2026, compared with 168 a year earlier. Total battery-electric registrations rose by approximately 65% in the first quarter. Those figures show the scale of the increase, although they do not isolate the subsidy’s contribution from discounts, model availability or other influences. UNRAE March registration tables.

The summer then showed how quickly the monthly market can change. UNRAE reported a battery-electric share of 10.1% in June, followed by 5.9% in July and 6.4% in August, linking the pattern to the incentive deadline and the subsequent fading of its effects. This was a retreat from June’s peak, rather than evidence that electric demand had disappeared. Timing and seasonal changes also affect monthly registrations. UNRAE June release, July release, August release.

Buyer support is changing shape

The end of one purchase incentive does not mean all assistance has ended. Italy’s approved social-leasing pilot provides another route to a newer car: qualifying households would pay no more than €100 a month, including VAT, over 36 months, without an advance payment beyond the monthly rent.

The pilot covers eligible low-emission vehicles and is not exclusively electric. Its contribution to EV registrations will therefore depend on the vehicles selected for the scheme. It nevertheless shows how support can move from reducing the purchase price to reducing the monthly commitment. These are approved programme terms, rather than confirmation that applications are currently open. MIMIT social-leasing decree.

For charging strategy, this raises a practical question: if support brings electric ownership within reach of more households, will those drivers have convenient and affordable access to charging? Where home charging is unavailable, public and destination charging become particularly relevant to the ownership proposition.

A larger market creates a different planning horizon

Italy registered approximately 94,000 battery-electric passenger cars in 2025. PAVE Insight vehicle market forecasts put annual registrations at approximately 265,000 by 2030—around 2.8 times the 2025 level.

In that forecast, battery-electric cars represent roughly 17% of new registrations in 2030. Hybrids, including plug-in and non-plug-in models, remain the largest group at approximately 62%, while combustion-only cars fall from around 43% in 2025 to 21%.

The distinction between annual registrations and the vehicles already on the road matters. A forecast for new sales does not directly measure the future electric fleet or its charging requirements. Existing vehicles, retirement rates, mileage and access to private charging all affect demand. The combined hybrid category also includes vehicles that do not require external charging.

Even with those distinctions, the direction creates a clear strategic challenge: short-term swings in registrations sit within a forecast of sustained growth in annual electric-car sales.

Turning a coverage gap into an investment decision

For charging point operators, a sparse mapped network is a useful screening signal. Establishing a viable site requires closer assessment of the local electric fleet, traffic, home-charging access, utilisation, tariffs and grid connections. Regional comparisons can help prioritise that work; they cannot establish an investment return by themselves.

For governments, the risk is that measures encouraging electric ownership advance faster than dependable charging access. That makes coordination between vehicle support and infrastructure deployment particularly important. The EU’s Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation provides a framework for infrastructure rollout, while regional analysis helps identify the local needs behind national deployment plans.

PAVE Insight brings vehicle market forecasts together with spatial and economic evidence to help organisations identify where demand could grow and where coverage warrants closer investigation. The opportunity is to make those connections early enough to inform investment, rather than respond only once access becomes a constraint.

Where will electric demand grow, and where are the gaps forming? Speak to PAVE Insight and get the answers you need.

Data basis: PAVE Insight vehicle market forecasts reviewed on 29 September 2026; OpenStreetMap infrastructure extract dated 21 September 2026; Eurostat population data for 2025 and regional GDP for 2024. Charging figures describe recorded locations. Filling-station figures and charging-to-filling ratios are regional estimates derived from the mapped grid. The Spanish comparison covers the 16 mainland and Balearic regions examined.