OEM and aftermarket channels do not carry the same weight across the connected vehicle market. Our 2031 forecast points to a segmented channel structure rather than a uniform shift.

Some vehicle categories are moving rapidly toward OEM-led connectivity. Others remain open to independent platforms, specialist hardware, and aftermarket channels. For strategy teams, the useful work is in separating those category dynamics rather than treating the market as a single channel shift.

Our forecast shows why this distinction matters. OEM active-base share is forecast at 85.2% in passenger vehicles, but only 45.1% in light commercial vehicles, 31.9% in medium and heavy commercial vehicles, 29.6% in trailers, and 24.5% in medium and heavy bus and coach.

That spread tells a more useful story than a simple channel shift. OEMs look structurally powerful in passenger vehicles. But in commercial, trailer, bus, and mixed-fleet categories, independent platforms and specialist aftermarket providers retain meaningful strategic space.

Channel control, data access, workflow ownership, and customer trust all vary by vehicle type. That is where the strategic signal sits.

This is the kind of analysis PAVE Insight is designed to support: connecting vehicle parc, forecast active base, OEM and aftermarket assumptions, supplier coverage, and product capability so teams can see where channel power is actually moving.

Different Asset Class, Different Behaviour

In passenger vehicles, OEM connectivity may become the default. In mixed commercial fleets, it may become one input among many. In trailers, aftermarket hardware can still be the product. In fleet software, the winning layer may be neither the device nor the vehicle manufacturer, but the workflow that sits above both.

That is why channel identity is only the starting point; who connects the vehicle matters. But who turns that connection into a useful operating decision matters more.

The Data Signal

Our 2031 forecast shows very different OEM active-base shares by vehicle type, which vary significantly by country, too. At a very general level, though, we forecast the following:

This is not a marginal difference.

The passenger vehicle market points toward OEM-led connectivity. Commercial and asset-heavy categories point toward a more mixed future, where OEM data, aftermarket hardware, independent platforms, and integrations all remain relevant.

That is the kind of pattern that is easy to miss if the market is viewed through a single adoption curve. It becomes much clearer when vehicle type, active base, supplier coverage, product function, and channel assumptions can be read together.

For a strategy, investment, or sales team, the value is not just the percentage itself. The value is being able to move from the percentage to the surrounding market context: which suppliers are active, which product capabilities are present, which vehicle types are exposed to OEM substitution, and where aftermarket propositions remain commercially strong. That is the practical role PAVE Insight plays in this analysis.

Passenger Vehicles: The OEM Advantage Is Structural

Passenger vehicles are where OEMs have the clearest channel advantage.

They control the vehicle architecture. They control factory-fit hardware. They control the service relationship. They increasingly control the connected data environment. For many passenger use cases, the OEM can make connectivity feel invisible: already installed, already activated, already part of the vehicle experience.

That creates real advantages:

• Lower installation friction.
• Direct access to vehicle data.
• Integration with service and warranty workflows.
• Brand permission from the customer.
• Ability to bundle connected services into the vehicle, lease, or subscription.
• Long-term control of the digital relationship around the vehicle.

For aftermarket providers, that does not mean passenger vehicles are impossible. It means the bar is higher. The aftermarket proposition has to sit where OEMs are weaker: cross-brand aggregation, insurance, leasing, fleet policy, specialist analytics, data normalisation, or workflows the OEM has no reason to prioritise.

In passenger vehicles, the pressure shifts to the value that can be created above the OEM connection.

What About Commercial Fleets?

Commercial fleets are different because the buyer is rarely buying connectivity for its own sake.

They are buying operational improvement: fewer delays, safer drivers, better compliance, lower fuel and energy costs, reduced downtime, higher utilisation, stronger customer service, and simpler reporting.

Most commercial fleets are also messy. They contain multiple vehicle brands, different asset ages, leased and owned vehicles, trailers, specialist equipment, cross-border operations, and multiple software systems.

That complexity is a problem for any single-OEM model. OEM data can be useful, but a fleet operator rarely wants one operating process per OEM. They need a consistent way to run the fleet across brands, assets, and workflows.

That is where independent platforms can remain highly relevant. Their role is not simply to provide an alternative device. It is to normalise data, connect systems, and help customers manage the fleet as one operating environment.

The more mixed the fleet, the more valuable the neutral layer becomes.

LCVs: The Most Contested Channel

Light commercial vehicles sit in the middle.

They are close enough to passenger vehicles that OEM and leasing channels matter. But they are operational enough that workflow still matters. This makes LCVs one of the more contested areas of the market.

Some LCV buyers will be reached through OEMs, leasing companies, rental fleets, and embedded data partnerships. Others will remain aftermarket-led because they operate older vehicles, mixed brands, SME fleets, field-service teams, or last-mile delivery operations with specific workflow needs.

For suppliers, this means LCV strategy cannot be generic.

The strongest proposition may depend on the buyer:

• Leasing fleets may care about utilisation, residual value, service scheduling, and risk.
• Field-service fleets may care about dispatch, customer arrival windows, and driver productivity.
• SMEs may care about simplicity, installation speed, and transparent pricing.
• Delivery fleets may care about route performance, proof of service, and exception management.

LCVs are not just a smaller version of heavy commercial fleets. They are a channel battleground with several routes to market.

Trailers Show Why Specialist Hardware Still Has a Future

Trailers complicate any simple OEM-connectivity story. They are not always powered; they may be separated from tractor-units, and they move between depots, customers, operators, and countries. They may carry high-value goods, temperature-sensitive cargo, or utilisation constraints that are invisible without dedicated sensing.

That creates needs that are different from vehicle telematics:

• Battery life.
• Rugged hardware.
• Door and cargo sensing.
• Temperature monitoring.
• Yard visibility.
• Detention and dwell-time analytics.
• Asset recovery.
• Utilisation and availability reporting.

In these use cases, the device still matters, the installation context still matters, and the hardware form factor still matters. That's not to say that OEM connectivity won't become part of the trailer story, especially through trailer manufacturers. But specialist asset-tracking providers have a clear reason to exist where the asset, not just the vehicle, is the unit of value.

Channel, Data, Workflow

A cleaner way to read OEM and aftermarket power is to split it into three layers.

The first layer is channel. Who has the route to the customer? OEMs may win this layer in passenger vehicles, specialist installers and integrators may matter in fragmented commercial fleets.

The second layer is data. Who can access, normalise, and combine the signals needed to solve the problem? OEM data is powerful, but it is rarely the only data a fleet needs.

The third layer is workflow. Who owns the operating process that the customer actually uses? This may be dispatch, maintenance, compliance, safety, insurance, leasing, utilisation, or reporting.

The key point is that the commercial implications are different at each layer.

That is why a market-intelligence view has to connect vehicle type, supplier footprint, product capability, and adoption data. Otherwise, it is too easy to mistake connectivity share for value ownership.

PAVE Insight is built around that connected view. It lets teams move beyond a single market-size number into more commercial follow-up analysis: which channels are gaining influence, which suppliers are most exposed, which segments still favour specialist providers, and which product capabilities create value above the connection.

What are the Implications for Investment?

For investors, OEM connectivity should not be treated as a blanket threat or a blanket opportunity. Obviously, an aftermarket provider may be vulnerable if it depends on basic hardware-led connectivity in a segment where OEM connectivity is becoming standard. But an independent platform may be defensible if it:

• Works across OEMs.
• Serves mixed fleets.
• Owns workflow depth.
• Integrates with enterprise systems.
• Solves problems OEMs do not prioritise.
• Combines OEM, aftermarket, and third-party data.

OEMs will gain share in some segments. The investment judgement is where that share creates control, where it creates inputs for other platforms, and where it leaves operational gaps that specialist providers can still own.

What about Growth Strategies?

For sales teams, channel strategy should be built by vehicle type and buyer type.

In passenger vehicles, the sales motion may depend on partnerships, embedded services, insurance, leasing, or data-enabled propositions. In LCVs, the motion may need to separate SME fleets from leasing fleets, field-service fleets, and delivery fleets. In heavy commercial vehicles, the case may be less about basic connectivity and more about cross-brand workflow, compliance, maintenance, analytics, and integration, whilst in trailers, the story may remain sharply use-case led: asset protection, cold chain, utilisation, detention, and yard operations.

Each category has a different reason to buy. Each channel has a different right to win.

For commercial teams, this is where analysis becomes actionable. Insight must help turn the market structure into prioritisation: where to partner, where to defend, where to target specialist use cases, and where a generic connected-vehicle proposition is unlikely to be enough.

What Can We Surmise?

The OEM and aftermarket split remains one of the defining channel dynamics in connected vehicles. But the implications vary sharply by segment.

OEMs are likely to become more powerful where embedded connectivity, ownership experience, and direct vehicle data matter most. But aftermarket providers, specialist hardware companies, and independent software platforms still have room where fleets are mixed, assets are heterogeneous, and operational workflows matter more than the origin of the data.

The winners will not be defined only by who connects the vehicle. They will be defined by who owns the useful layer above the connection. That is the strategic lens that matters: channel, data, and workflow.

For teams trying to make those calls, the analysis upon which you rely has to join forecast adoption, vehicle type, supplier footprint, and product capability in one place. That is the job PAVE Insight is built for.

Data Notes For Publication

• Data source: PostgreSQL schema v20260429a.
• Forecast horizon used in this prototype: 2031.
• OEM active-base share should be described as a forecast measure.
• Figures are rounded for readability.
• Refresh numbers before final publication if the source dataset changes.